Six months after the United States and Israel launched their first strikes on Iran, the war’s physical, financial and emotional effects have spread from Tehran across the world, reaching the large Iranian community in the United States.

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Six months into the Iran war, Gulf states are moving toward a layered security system built on overlapping partnerships. They are deepening cooperation among themselves and with partners including Türkiye, European states and Pakistan, while the United States remains central rather than being replaced.

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Iranian leaders are acknowledging the economic costs of the war with the United States. The supreme leader urged the government to tackle hardship, while the president said foreign trade had fallen 35% because of American sanctions and the blockade.

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Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh appeared somewhat less opposed on Friday to signaling the monetary-policy outlook, as bond markets pressed him to explain his view of high inflation and what action he might take.

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Warsh’s speech offered a clearer picture of how he interprets the economy, while leaving unresolved questions about the Federal Reserve’s ‘reaction function’.

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After confusing markets at his July press conference, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh used Jackson Hole to offer a clearer explanation of the case for higher interest rates.

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At a major economic event, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh declined to signal where interest rates are headed, while describing inflation as “concerning.”

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In a speech, Warsh expressed concern about inflation and laid out his philosophy on policymaking while carefully avoiding any signals about the policy outlook.

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Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh says inflation remains too high and suggests the central bank may need to raise interest rates in the coming months to bring it down, offering a clearer indication than before of his economic outlook.

Federal Reserveinflationinterest rates

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said at Jackson Hole that the central bank would have more work to do if it could not confirm underlying inflation was returning to its 2 percent target quickly enough. He said financial conditions did not appear restrictive enough, leaving open the possibility of rate hikes, while stressing he offered no timeline or forward guidance.

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Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh said summer inflation readings had improved less than expected but had not meaningfully changed the picture. He said the Fed must be confident underlying inflation is moving back to its 2% target quickly enough, otherwise it has “work to do”, suggesting rates could rise while stressing this was not forward guidance.

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Wall Street’s main indexes were subdued on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated his focus on returning inflation to the central bank’s 2% target. A rally fueled by artificial intelligence stocks in the previous session also faded.

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Six months into the conflict, it is becoming clearer who is benefiting and who is suffering greater damage in the energy sector.

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Sberbank chief economist Alexander Isakov told Reuters that Russia’s central bank will keep cutting its key rate, bringing it down from 14% to 13.5% by year-end despite Ukrainian attacks on economic targets.

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Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech could shape expectations about Federal Reserve support for Treasury buybacks, with potential consequences for bitcoin, gold and long-term yields.

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Rae Wee looks ahead to the day in European and global markets as Warsh heads into the Jackson Hole hot seat.

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Fed chair Kevin Warsh will need to reassure markets in his forthcoming speech.

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Crypto traders are watching for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole. One analyst expects him to take a tough stance on inflation, while still predicting that the Fed will delay rate hikes until at least after the November midterm elections.

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Investors are preparing for Kevin Warsh’s first speech as chair of the US Federal Reserve at the central bank’s annual economic policy meeting. His comments on the US interest-rate outlook at Friday’s Jackson Hole symposium could offer clues for markets, including stocks and bonds recently pressured by rising Treasury yields.

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Treasury yields edged lower as investors prepared for the release of initial jobless claims data and a closely watched speech by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.

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